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A research published in the journal PLOS has analysed the possibility of the spread of the deadly Ebola virus disease all over the world. Although the risk keep changing on daily basis, the researchers have warned that in the coming few weeks Ebola will be reported in countries where it has not reached yet. The researchers have made the following predictions based on Ebola spread patterns and airline traffic data that they gathered:
- According to the study, there is a 50 per cent chance that a passenger infected with Ebola could carry the disease to UK by October 24.
- There’s a 75 per cent chance Ebola will be reported in France by October 24.
- There’s a 40 per cent chance of Ebola spreading to Belgium
- With a lowest possible risk, Spain and Switzerland have a 14 per cent chance of an Ebola case.
Further, the researchers also mention in the study that even if there is an 80 per cent reduction in travel to the affected regions in West Africa, France would still stand at a 25 per cent risk of reporting an Ebola positive case, whereas as UK’s will have 15 per cent chance.
‘Air traffic is the driver for Ebola infection. But considering there are differences in connections with the affected West African countries, as well as different numbers of cases in these three countries – so depending on that, the probability numbers change,’ says Professor Alessandro Vespignani of Northeastern University in Boston, lead author of the research.
According to the researchers’ calculations, countries including Ghana, UK, Nigeria, Gambia, Belgium, France, Morocco, Ivory Coast, U.S, South Africa, Germany and Kenya have been predicted with the highest short-term risk of Ebola.
India has not been mentioned as one of the countries at high-risk of Ebola. But again, these estimates are just predictions based on air travel. Ebola is an international emergency and India should definitely be prepared for the worse. The virus has killed over 3,500 in West African countries and has now reached US. Irrespective of these possibilities and predictions, screening at the airports should be tightened to prevent any possible spread of Ebola in India. The study was reported by Mail online.
High rate of spread
The virus seems to spread very quickly from one human to another and it can spread through body fluids like blood, saliva, stool, urine, sweat, etc. This makes it extremely dangerous in a densely populated country like ours where it’s easy to catch the virus while travelling, in offices or in any other public area. The disease can also spread through soiled clothing, bed linen or used needles.
High fatality rate
According to the WHO, EVD (Ebola Virus Disease) outbreaks have a fatality rate of 90%. Currently, there is no licensed treatment or vaccine for the disease, either for humans or animals. The only way to treat patients is to place them in ICUs and that too is very dangerous for healthcare workers or anyone coming in contact with the victims.
No natural immunity
Unlike the African countries where ebola outbreaks have occurred before, the disease – if it arrives is completely new in India – which means that we have no natural immunity against the virus. Our internal body system has never experienced anything like the ebola virus and won’t know how to fight it.
Photo source: Getty images
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India not among high-risk countries for Ebola
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